عنوان مقاله
آنالیز های عدم قطعیت و حساسیت براورد های صدمات ناشی از سیلاب ساحلی در غرب هلند
فهرست مطالب
مقدمه
منطقه مورد مطالعه
درختان و داده ها و مدل هاخاک
درختان در اجرای الگوریتم
درختان در نتایج و بحث
نتیجه گیری
بخشی از مقاله
بخش جست وجو: تعیین نقشه طغیان مربوط به حجم
بعد از به وجود آوردن جدول جست و جو طی پردازش، می توان از این جدول برای براورد سطح سیل زده معادل با حجم خاص استفاده کرد. نزدیک ترین حجم به حجم ویژه در جدول بررسی می شود که ریزحوضه هایی را که بایستی آبگیری شوند علاوه بر سطوح آبی آنها را مشخص می کند. سطح آب در آخرین حوضه کوچک جهت رسیدن به حجم خاص تعدیل می گردد. حین پیش پردازش طغیان، مدل ارتفاع رقومی ایجاد جدولی می کند که از نظر محاسباتی بسیار سخت است (بسته به اندازه و تفکیک پذیری ساعت ها طول می کشد) و این که حجم مطلوب را تعیین کرده و ایجاد نقشه طغیان با استفاده از نقشه بسیار تسریع می گردد (تقریبا در عرض یک دقیقه).
کلمات کلیدی:
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of coastal flood damage estimates in the west of the Netherlands H. de Moel1,2, N. E. M. Asselman3 , and J. C. J. H. Aerts1,2 1 Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands 2Amsterdam Global Change Institute, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands 3Deltares, Rotterdamseweg 185, 2629 HD Delft, The Netherlands Correspondence to: H. de Moel (hans.de.moel@vu.nl) Received: 2 December 2011 – Revised: 13 February 2012 – Accepted: 29 February 2012 – Published: 16 April 2012 Abstract. Uncertainty analyses of flood damage assessments generally require a large amount of model evaluations. This is often hampered by the high computational costs necessary to calculate flood extents and depths using 2-dimensional flow models. In this paper we developed a new approach to estimate flood inundation depths that can be incorporated in a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. This allows estimation of the uncertainty in flood damage estimates and the determination of which parameters contribute the most to this uncertainty. The approach is applied on three breach locations on the west coast of the Netherlands. In total, uncertainties in 12 input parameters were considered in this study, related to the storm surge, breach growth and the damage calculation. We show that the uncertainty in flood damage estimates is substantial, with the bounds of the 95 % confidence range being more than four times smaller or larger than the median. The most influential parameter is uncertainty in depthdamage curves, but five other parameters also contribute substantially. The contribution of uncertainty in parameters related to the damage calculation is about equal to the contribution of parameters related to the volume of the inflowing water. Given the emphasis of most risk assessments on the estimation of the hazard, this implies that the damage calculation aspect deserves more attention in flood risk research efforts. Given the large uncertainties found in this study, it is recommended to always perform multiple calculations in flood simulations and damage assessments to capture the full range of model outcomes. 1 Introduction Flood management in Europe has traditionally mainly been concerned with measures designed to prevent flood events. More recently, a paradigm shift can be observed in flood risk management, moving towards an approach not only focussed on flood prevention (i.e. the hazard), but also on measures that reduce economical damage and casualties (DKKV, 2004; Tunstall et al., 2004; Vis et al., 2003). The interest in a risk-based approach has been amplified by severe flooding events in recent decades, as well as the observation that exposure to flooding has increased dramatically through population growth and urban development in vulnerable areas (Munich Re, 2005; Nicholls et al., 2008; De Moel et al., 2011). The prospect of future flood risk is continuing to increase because of these socio-economic drivers combined with the prospect of climate change (e.g. Te Linde et al., 2010; Milly et al., 2002) added further to this interest in risk-based flood management.
