عنوان مقاله
مدلسازی و ارزیابی خسارت سیلاب در حوضه رودخانه سرخ در ویتنام
فهرست مطالب
مقدمه
برآورد مقادیر حد برای سطح آب
ارزیابی خسارت سیل
روابط بین خسارت سیل و سطح آب
روابط بین خسارت مادی و غیرمادی سیل
نتیجه گیری
بخشی از مقاله
داده های سطوح آب مشاهده شده
داده های سطح آب از موسسه مکانیک در ویتنام در این آنالیز استفاده شدند. این داده ها دارای تفکیک پذیری زمانی 6 ساعته (برای ایستگاه ها) و 24 ساعته (26 ایستگاه) برای دوره 1990 تا 2001 هستند. بخش ایستگاهها شامل دلتای رود رد بوده و سال های کامل را پوشش می دهد (19 ایستگاه) و بخشی شامل حوضه رود رد در ویتنام است و دوره 1 ژوئن تا 15 اکتبر را پوشش می دهد. فرض بر این است که دوره دوم بیانگر فصل سیلاب بوده و رویداد های مهم افزایش سطح آب در این فصل رخ می دهد.
کلمات کلیدی:
Flood Damage Assessment and Modelling in the Red River basin in Vietnam Martijn J. Booij Department of Civil Engineering, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands; email: m.j.booij@utwente.nl Abstract Flood damage is an important property in the evaluation of flood control and ecosystem upgrading measures in the decision support system for the Red River basin in Vietnam. Therefore, extreme water levels, flood damage and the relations between these variables are considered. It is found that annual, direct flood damage has a typical order of magnitude of 100-1000 million US$ and is highly uncertain. The uncertainty is caused by the lack of damage data, data on costs per unit damage and data on other damage categories, such as indirect damage and intangible damage. As a consequence relations between flood damage and water levels are uncertain as well. Comparison of the flood damage with the gross domestic product in the Red River delta emphasised the high importance of incorporating flood damage in decision support systems. Large floods may cause damages with a magnitude between 20-50 % of the gross domestic product. Key words: floods; extreme water levels; damage assessment; spatial variability; uncertainty; Red River 1 Introduction The FLOCODS DSS is a decision support system for evaluation of different flood control and ecosystem upgrading measures under different scenarios in the Red River basin in Vietnam and China (see e.g. Booij, 2003). In this DSS, cost-benefit analysis could be used as an evaluation tool and therein, flood damage is an important component. By comparing annual expected flood damage for different measures, a priority list of preferred measures can be made. It is therefore of crucial importance that a flood damage assessment module is incorporated in the FLOCODS DSS. Flood damage can be broadly classified into two categories: tangible and intangible damages. Tangible flood damages, which can be expressed in monetary values, can be subdivided into two types: direct and indirect damage. These can be further subdivided into primary and secondary damages. Therefore four types of tangible flood damage can be distinguished (Dutta et al., 2003): direct primary (e.g. structures, agriculture), direct secondary (land and environment recovery), indirect primary (business interruption) and indirect secondary (impact on regional and national economy). Intangible damages (e.g. health, psychological problems) have been occasionally investigated in literature (e.g. Lekuthai and Vongvisessomjai, 2001), but in general, research is limited to tangible damages. Here, flood damage is restricted to direct primary tangible damages because of the complexity of modelling other damage types. Intangible damage will only slightly be considered.
